One of the renowned trend investors with origination from the world of commodity trading believes the case with gold and especially silver is bright and these two are poised for only an upward move and promising high returns.
The portfolio manager for the Altana Inflation Trends Fund, Alex Krainer was recently willing to offer his views on the current trends in the market. In the current times, where the bear market for commodities prevails, Krainer still sees opportunities to gain. At the top of his list of good stocks, Gill is positive about gold and silver.
Even, Krainer stated: Silver is going up and I stand firm with this idea. In principle, we have done a short in commodities such as corn, soybeans, and cotton though gold can charge up to 3,000 or even 10,000 or 20,000 it’s unpredictable.
The HSD Picture in Commodities
Krainer has noted a tendency of a sharper surge which he has termed as the ‘hockey stick’ and this has been evident in both commodities and equities. He has, however, said that such aggressive prices are attributed to the extensive grip created by the shadow banking system.
He put it into perspective using the current value of the gold market which stood around $10 trillion and the shadow banking system which is said to have a value of $220 trillion. “When the price of gold begins to rise slowly and gets the attention of the market when even larger ounces of gold are desired by the money managers for their funds, this can create a rush and result in a soaring price,” Krainer said.
Such large moves are not just observed in hard commodities such as cocoa and cobalt but are also seen in equities that include Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla.
Riding the Trend: An essential element for the organization to achieve its strategic goals and objectives is the development of a strategic management plan that focuses on human capital.
To this end, Krainer contributes by pointing out that markets honor trends only a third of the time while sixty percent are either reversals or consolidations.
‘You might only make money a third of the time, but it’s impossible to say where or when a trend starts or stops Krainer. ’ He likened trend-following to commercial fishing: ‘‘When you meet a school of fish there is hell of a lot of fish that you could get But to locate the school of fish, you have to throw your nets in the water every single day. ’’
At this time Krainer is fixated on gold and silver where he anticipates an increase in the prices. He is also heavily leveraged on platinum though he concedes that this metal has been trading in a horizontal channel for a little over eight years.
