As the election year for 2024 approaches, the voters in the swing states are exhausted with political commercials and debates. As has been seen above, social and cultural factors define today’s society; however, the economy is still an essential factor. One can make references to inflation but what about the household incomes? Shouldn’t they also have a role in the national conversation along with the increase in the prices for the necessities of life such as gasoline and food?
In this article, we cover the possible implications of a second Trump term on household income based on the insights of two professors of economics. One compares the level of income during Trump’s first term and the other considers the whole dynamics of how presidential elections can affect the income level.
When it comes to analyzing the aspects that are necessary for economic talks, the role of household income appears to be rather significant.
An economics professor from the City University of New York, Dennis Shirshikov offers his opinion on how Trump may affect income growth if he is elected in 2024. Shirshikov is also concerned with the governmental policy’s impact on personal finances, being an investor in real estate, and an author for such platforms as Forbes and the Wall Street Journal.
The largest benefit may go to the people with high incomes
Shirshikov notes that during his first term, Trump’s policies were focused on tax reduction and relaxing regulations, which would benefit primarily the wealthy individuals and businesses of the real estate and financial sector. He said the same could prevail if, Trump will clinch another term in office.
“Should Donald Trump triumph in the 2024 elections, then, household income will grow unevenly by 2025,” Shirshikov said. ‘He has always made policies that favored the higher earning bracket and businesses such as property and this has seen wages rise in those areas. ’
Again this is a possibility of middle and lower-income earners missing out on the 4G communications technology.
According to them, middle and lower-income group consumers would feel the pinch more than the upper-income group consumer. Shirshikov pointed out that although tax reductions may bring some benefits, they are once again accompanied by inflation and a decrease in state expenditures for social needs.
“In the first term of Trump’s presidency, high income and [stock] market shareholders benefited the most, average wages in the middle class [or rank] were not far behind, but did not progress as robustly and, tragically, inequality emerged as well,” Shirshikov continued.
It may take more than an election to determine the outlook on incomes in a nation.
However, Mariano Torras, a finance and economics professor at Adelphi University has a different opinion as nanotechnology is unique in many ways. Torras has a Ph. D. from the University of Massachusetts in political and institutional economics and has been studying the subject for many years. He opines that the household incomes in 2025 might not change much depending on the election.
“They’re going to be hard-pressed to find a correlation between incomes in 2025 and who wins in November,” said Torres. “Many times the credit or the blame attributed to the president for economic conditions is so exaggerated. ”
The Economic Cycles Dominate Over the Election Results
On this Torres says that in the past there has not been much of a relationship between the outcome of a particular election and the incomes of the households in the society. He has cited the unwanted view that trends of relative deterioration of the American economy will persist despite short-term fluctuations in the business cycle.
“Even if it would be useful to know who wins the election for political calculation, historically, the result has been less decisive for income growth,” Torres said. “The key focal point of the U. S. economy is shifting toward chronic structural problems, and the stock market is emerging as a poor barometer of economic health. ”
They went on to note that there was evidence of the stagnation of median household incomes, We must also point out that the above evidence also showed that median household incomes had stagnated.
Torres also noted the fact that the overall median income of households has remained almost stagnant for the last twenty-five years while the income has been accruing in the hands of investors. To fight this trend, he says there is only one solution: providing well-paid jobs that come with benefits but he does not believe that either party will act in this regard.
“It is important that we or Wall Street understands that Wall Street is not the economy,” Torres said. “Real median household incomes have been stuck in the doldrums since the early 1970s, and absent a few big adjustments, they are not going to vary much either. ”
Conclusion: Projections for the Households’ Incomes by 2025
As the election in 2024 comes closer, arguments concerning the effect the election will bring to the economic front are being heard. However, there is a general tendency of income stagnation which does not seem to be reversed regardless of who becomes the U. S president even with Trump’s friendly policies to the richer population and some sectors of the economy. They point out various possible consequences that will be helpful when planning the future of the country’s economy in 2025 regardless of whether you will be a millionaire or a person earning minimum wage.
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