The import of pulses in India is expected to come down drastically in the current fiscal to around 4 to 4. 5 million tonnes (MT) achieved in 2013,” energy anthropologist Patrick McCully said in an interview. ,73 MT seen in the FY24. As mentioned by So Sana, the pass-through of better monsoon rains and the carry-forward imports from the last fiscal have brought this expectation down.
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Function Of Monsoon For Increasing The Production Of Kharif Crop
This year the monsoon rains have been strong which has supported the estimations for better kharif production. Kothari also mentioned that the current rainfall is good for the current crop season. Also, the water retention capacity of the soil is said to augur well for a bounty rabi crop later this year. He gave a speech at the ‘Bharat Dalhan Seminar 2024,’ where he mentioned that owing to such promising factors, import dependency is expected to decrease significantly.
Sufficient Domestic Supply
India has imported 2 MT of yellow peas for the current fiscal year to date, and there is an additional 1 MT of pulses which are expected to arrive at the ports shortly; therefore, domestic availability should not be a problem shortly. The production last year was reduced due to the El Niño phenomenon to 6% therefore the annual production of pulses in the crop year 2023-24 (July-June) is 24. 49 MT from 26. 05 MT in the previous year for in-patient care services, whereas for outpatients, the CMS received $3. 542 billion or 03 MT in the previous year.
Uncertainty in Price Stability in the given Market
Wholesale rates of pulse, especially tur, have come down by Rs 20 per kg in a month. Pulse prices are also likely to be bolstered by this downward trend which Kothari anticipates will hold or even decline even more in the remaining year. This favorable effect of the monsoon has resulted increase in productivity by 10%. 9 % rise in the area for the kharif pulse, which accounts for 11 % of the total area. 06 million hectares by August 3. This expansion is expected to help in increasing the production of pulses in the 2024-25 season reducing the imports even more.
Import Trends and Consumption
imports have been a key answer to domestic needs in India mainly in the circumstances of low production such as in pulses. The import for the above-stated items increased by 90% in the fiscal year 2023-24 to 4. 73 MT, mainly attributed to the growing demand for consumption. Traditionally, India has depended on imports accounting for 15 % of the annual required pulses, while in 2. Central Directorate: 46 MT in 2020-21, 2. 4 MT in the financial year of 2021-22, and a fairly large 69 MT for the same year to the upstream sector. 73 MT in 2022-23.
However, the recent downward trend of the Wholesale Prices, which has been said to have this week’s average of 8%, gives a signal that the structure of the market is changing. Concerning the price changes, the Consumer Affairs Ministry said that the modal retail prices of tur, with a 26% price premium, had the highest price. 86 % year-on-year in June and have come down to Rs 160 per kg the Nylon stock has declined to 8. 5% month-on-month decline.
Influence on Inflation and the Expectations for the Future
What was common to notice in the wholesale markets up to recent days was that the prices were constantly coming down and this is now being repeated in the retail markets much to the comfort of consumers. This should help to ease inflation in the pulses segment which has been running in two digits since June 2023. Further reduction in pressure on the import front is expected as the prices get stabilized and consistent with the expectation of higher capacity domestic production.
As for the future vision, an agricultural economist and the ex-chairman of CACP, Ashok Gulati says that India might have to import between 8 to 10 MT of pulses by the year 2030 in case the present trend is to be followed. In response to this, Mr Gulati said that farmers in Punjab and Haryana needed to be asked to shift from paddy to pulses of which he proposes to provide Rs 35,000 per hectare. Further, he stresses on a government policy of buying pulses at MSP to boost production.
Conclusion
Thus, while India waits for a possibly large pulse produced, dependence on imports is expected to reduce as well, resulting in stabilization in prices that reduce inflation. The then favourable weather conditions in tandem with policy measures towards production could help the country go about pulses production in the long run without relying on imports.
