Everyone wants to know what Hindenburg Research has in store for SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch as investors prepare for the trading week. As people start growing concerned about where these accusations would impact on Indian stock market especially the Nifty 50 it becomes paramount that all these factors are considered before the market opens on Monday the 12th of August 2024.
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GIFT Nifty means a rather low beginning of the monetary value period
Signs are already appearing and symptomatic of a flat opening of the Indian equity markets could be expected. GIFT Nifty was up by 22. 50 points or 0. 09%, being at 24,406 augurs well for both NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex on the opening bell. This is after the Nifty 50 on Fri closed higher by 251 points 1. 04% touching the 24,368 level and the BSE Sensex closed higher by 820 points 1. 04% to 79,706. However, the event of the week that may cause volatility would be the impact of the weekend’s development most especially the allegations by Hindenburg Research.
Hindenburg Research accusations of Manipulation of SEBI
In particular, I have come across the latest receipt from the US-based short-seller, Hindenburg Research. For instance, the report alleges that SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch has failed to disclose her and her spouse’s assets in offshore funds in Bermuda and Mauritius that the Indian news outlet links to Vinod Adani. These allegations, which were refuted by the couple, can, in turn, pose a threat to the investors since issues regarding regulatory reforms are sensitive in India. Buch has however refuted the allegations and defended herself as being clean on matters concerning the financial aspects of the company. However, the market may respond slowly to this targeting news due to the influence of socially responsible investors.
Global Market Cues: Analysing the Wall Street Journal and Markets in Asia
What must happen in Indian markets can, to an extent, be seen from global market trends. Wall Street finished in the positive territory on Friday with S&P 500 index inching up by 0. 47% to close at 5,344 for the year-end. 16, the largest gain on the Nasdaq Composite in six years This is fertility, financial education, and the new social relation of sexuality. 51% to 16,745. 30 and the DJIA added as much as 51 points, or 0. 13%, to close at 39,497. 54. Despite the madness created by the Hindenburg allegations this positive momentum in the US markets might help to temper the situation in Indian markets.
On the same note, markets across Asia remained positive on Monday as Asia could turn the corner after an exceptionally volatile week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0. 51 percent to 35,025, while South Korea’s Kospi improved by 1. 24% to 2,588. 43. Nonetheless, the Chinese Shanghai Composite was lower by a meager 0. 27% at 2,862. 19. The current trend from these Asian markets seems to indicate overall, a comparatively cautious optimism.
Key Economic Indicators: In an act to control inflation, and supply disruption and to fight war and terrorism, international crude oil prices are expressed in US dollars.
Prices of crude oil still hold strategic relevance for India’s economic system. WTI crude on Monday morning was at $76 per barrel. 89, up by 0. 06%, meanwhile Brent crude fell by a very slight 0. 06%, trading at $79. 59. There is a fair stability of the crude prices which though may affect the inflation and hence the market sentiments.
The trade-weighted U. S dollar index or DXY shows the greenback’s performance relative to a broad basket of currencies including the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc, and the yen was soaked just a tad, by – 0. 01% at 103. 15 on Monday. A stable or weaker dollar can act as positive to an economy as is the case with emerging markets such as India; flows can be attracted.
FII and DII Activity
Another important variable is the foreign institutional investors’ (FII) and domestic institutional investors’ (DII) activity. Net FII investment was positive on August 9, 2024, as they bought Rs 406 worth of equities from the company. 3 crore, leading the pack of buyers, DIIs proving to be even more aggressive with buys worth Rs 3,979. At least Rs 59 crore through the National Stock Exchange’s data based on provisional data for the entire year. That intense buying activity may offer some support to the market while it struggles today.
In this case, an F&O ban would make the shares highly volatile and vulnerable to a sharp downside at a time when market sentiment on the auto sector was turning bearish.
Some stocks persisted under the F & O ban for the trading date of August 12 2024: Bandhan Bank Ltd, Biocon Ltd, Granules India Ltd, SAIL, Aditya Birla Capital Ltd, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, Birlasoft Ltd, Punjab & Sind Bank, RBL Bank Ltd, LIC Housing Finance Ltd, Manappuram Finance Ltd, Gujarat Narmada The F&O ban might restrict the trading of such shares and this could adversely affect the liquidity and the volatility level in the market.
The technical analysis of the Nifty and Bank Nifty Portfolios
As it stands, the Nifty 50 has been in a contestation between bulls/buyers and bears/sellers especially at/at around the 50-day EMA which lies between the metrics of 23,950 and 24,000. Tejas Shah of JM Financial & BlinkX said that the Nifty moved by around 400 points intra-week last week and touched key technical levels on the upper and lower side. The breakout or breakdown of the 24,200 and the 23,950-24,000 levels should be watched for confirmation as to which way the market would trend next.
Bank Nifty has been comparatively weaker than Nifty and it can be seen from the following data. That’s bearish near the 50,700-50,900 area, with a clear break above 51,100 looking like the next step for further strength. Facilities for Bank Nifty are as follows: Buy at 50,300-350 / 49,650-700, Sell at 50,700 / 51,000-100 levels.
Conclusion: Caution Ahead
When I say that we should be cautious as we head towards the opening of the market on Monday, the 12th of August 2024, this is what I mean. Some comfort can be found in these global features and in buying by institutions but the charges against the SEBI Chair can create conditions for high fluctuations. It is now necessary for investors to pay close attention to the technical levels and the global markets to be in the right position to address the probable risks/ opportunities in the coming week.
